Bitcoin bottom signal that preceded 1,900% rally flashes again
A key on-chain indicator is flashing its most extreme capitulation signal since 2018, raising speculation that Bitcoin may be forming a new cycle low.
According to data from Checkonchain, Bitcoin’s “short-term holder stress” metric has fallen to levels not seen since the 2018 bear market bottom. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Bollinger Band oscillator has dropped into deeply oversold territory, a condition that historically coincided with major macro bottoms.
Echoes of the 2018 cycle low
The indicator measures the gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and the average cost basis of short-term holders, defined as wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days. By applying Bollinger Bands to this spread, analysts can detect when price deviations move beyond normal historical volatility.
When the oscillator pierces the lower statistical band, it signals that Bitcoin is trading significantly below the price recent buyers paid, a sign of stress and potential capitulation.
A similar setup occurred in late 2018. At the time, Bitcoin went on to rally roughly 150% within a year and ultimately surged around 1,900% over the following three years. The metric also flashed ahead of the November 2022 bottom, preceding a powerful recovery that eventually pushed Bitcoin to a record high near $126,270.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $67,000, far below its October 2025 peak near $126,000. However, realized losses among short-term holder whales remain relatively muted, suggesting that larger recent buyers have not fully capitulated. That dynamic can indicate seller exhaustion rather than panic-driven distribution.
Liquidity tailwinds may support rebound
Beyond on-chain signals, macro liquidity conditions could provide additional support. According to a note cited by CNBC, strategists at Wells Fargo see an unusual liquidity tailwind building in the United States.
Ohsung Kwon, strategist at Wells Fargo, argues that larger-than-usual US tax refunds in 2026 could revive speculative risk-taking behavior, sometimes described as the “YOLO trade.” Estimates suggest that as much as $150 billion could flow into equities and crypto markets by the end of March.
If even a fraction of that capital reaches Bitcoin, it could absorb remaining sell pressure and reinforce the technical bottom thesis suggested by on-chain data.
While no single metric guarantees a reversal, the convergence of deep capitulation signals and potential liquidity inflows strengthens the argument that Bitcoin may be entering a late-stage correction phase. Whether history repeats the magnitude of prior rallies remains uncertain, but structurally, the setup closely resembles previous cycle lows.
Source: Cointelegraph
What’s next for XRP as volatility sinks to 2024 lows?
XRP is trading near $1.42 as volatility compresses to levels last seen before a major 2024 rally, prompting traders to assess whether the prolonged downtrend is nearing exhaustion.
The token has declined roughly 61% from its all-time high during the broader market correction. However, recent price action suggests the aggressive selloff phase may be cooling. Instead of sharp directional moves, XRP has shifted into a tighter consolidation range, with modest intraday fluctuations replacing heavy downside momentum.
Volatility mirrors prior cycle bottom
One of the most notable developments is the drop in XRP’s historical volatility to 96, matching levels last observed in June 2024. That period marked the bottom of a prior downtrend, which was followed by a sustained rally into November.
Such volatility compression often precedes expansion. In technical terms, declining volatility combined with narrowing price ranges typically signals a buildup phase, where energy accumulates before a breakout in either direction. Some analysts also point to structural similarities with earlier cycle patterns, including the extended consolidation that preceded XRP’s explosive 2017 breakout.
Key levels: $1.39 support, $1.44 resistance
During the latest session, XRP briefly slipped 0.14% to $1.42 after testing support near $1.3915. The test occurred on volume nearly 94% above average, suggesting active participation at that level.
Importantly, price held above $1.39 and rebounded, completing roughly a 38.2% retracement. However, momentum stalled near the $1.428–$1.431 zone, just below the critical $1.44–$1.45 resistance area.
Technically, structure remains cautious below $1.44. That level now acts as a near-term ceiling and daily pivot. A decisive reclaim of $1.44 could open the path toward $1.50 and potentially $1.62, levels traders identify as the next meaningful resistance zones.
On the downside, a break below $1.39 would shift focus toward $1.35, where the next layer of support may emerge.
Compression before expansion?
Declining volume during consolidation suggests the market is compressing rather than entering fresh distribution. Sellers appear less urgent, while buyers are defending key levels without aggressively pushing price higher.
For traders, this environment represents a classic compression setup. The longer volatility remains suppressed, the more forceful the eventual expansion can become.
Whether XRP breaks higher toward $1.50+ or slips toward $1.35 may depend less on immediate catalysts and more on how long this tight range persists. With volatility near prior cycle lows, the next decisive move could define XRP’s medium-term trajectory.
Source: CoinDesk
CME Group launches 24/7 crypto futures trading in structural market shift
CME Group will introduce 24/7 trading for cryptocurrency futures and options starting May 29, marking a structural change in how regulated digital asset derivatives operate in the United States. The move enables continuous trading of Bitcoin and Ether futures, bringing regulated markets closer to the always-on nature of crypto spot markets.
Until now, CME’s crypto derivatives followed traditional market hours, creating periodic gaps between spot and futures price action. Since crypto spot markets trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week, institutional investors often faced reopening gaps after weekends or overnight volatility. The upcoming change is designed to eliminate that mismatch.
Aligning regulated derivatives with 24/7 spot markets
The expanded schedule applies to CME’s full suite of cryptocurrency futures and options products, including contracts tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to the exchange, nearly around-the-clock access will provide greater flexibility for global participants managing crypto exposure across multiple time zones.
CME’s crypto contracts have become a key venue for institutional price discovery, particularly among U.S.-based asset managers, hedge funds and ETF issuers. By extending trading hours to 24/7, CME is narrowing the structural divide between continuous spot trading and regulated derivatives infrastructure.
Tim McCourt, Global Head of Equities, FX and Alternative Products at CME Group, said that while not all markets are suited to 24/7 operations, always-on access to regulated and transparent crypto products allows clients to manage exposure and trade with confidence at any time.
Impact on volatility, liquidity and market structure
The introduction of continuous futures trading could reduce volatility caused by reopening gaps, especially following sharp weekend price movements. Previously, when futures markets were closed, significant spot price swings could result in abrupt adjustments once regulated trading resumed.
With CME contracts active at all times, price discovery between institutional and retail-driven spot markets may become more synchronized. Liquidity distribution could also shift, as open interest and hedging flows respond dynamically to overnight and weekend developments.
For asset managers, the change allows real-time portfolio adjustments rather than waiting for traditional reopening windows. This may tighten spreads between spot and derivatives markets and improve overall market efficiency.
CME’s decision represents another step toward deeper institutional integration of digital assets within traditional financial frameworks. As regulated infrastructure evolves to match crypto’s continuous trading model, the structural gap between legacy finance and blockchain-based markets continues to narrow.
Source: Techgaged